FACT: The amount of gas produced by each fracked well declines exponentially, so sites will be subject to continued drilling and fracking to keep production going.
According to the US Energy Information Administration’s example of a typical decline curve, production declines to 12% of its initial value within 2 years, and then down to 0.2% after 4 years[i]. Drilling new wells and fracking must be a continuous process to keep the flow going.
Fracking is only viable if done on a vast scale requiring thousands of wells. Heavy plant and machinery for drilling and fracking must be transported to the site. Drilling is a 24hr process; thousands of tons of chemicals and millions of gallons of water must be carried to the site by HGVs, involving thousands of journeys. And then after fracking millions of gallons of contaminated waste water are taken by tanker away from the site.
Estimates about how many wells will need to be drilled and fracked in the U.K. vary but a study in 2018 concluded that to replace 50% of U.K. imports over 6,000 wells would be required[ii]. The industry trade body UKOOG say they expect to need 4,000 wells[iii].
[i] Production Decline Curve Analysis – Energy Information Administration (https://www.eia.gov/analysis/drilling/curve_analysis/)
[ii] https://cdn.friendsoftheearth.uk/sites/default/files/downloads/FOE-Frack-Import-Report_0.pdf
[iii] Updated shale gas scenarios March 2019 website.pdf (https://www.ukoog.org.uk/images/ukoog/pdfs/Updated%20shale%20gas%20scenarios%20March%202019%20website.pdf)